Growth of Govt.

Just a few quick graphs that illustrate how things have changed in a hundred years or so. How did we ever get by back then?

More info here.

China is Subsidizing America's Standard of Living

Gary Becker does a good job summarizing the argument against trying to convince China to let the yuan fall against the dollar. Basically it goes like this: We want to buy Chinese goods, but Chinese goods can only be purchased with Chinese currency, so we give dollars to the Chinese central bank in exchange for yuan. But the Chinese government has this policy where they always give us more yuan than our dollars are really worth. So it's a good deal for us, and a bad deal for them. Why do they do that?

Even more relevant to Americans is the question, why is Obama trying to convince the Chinese to STOP doing that?

The comments on Becker's blog aren't working, but here's what I tried to post in reply:

Can it really be sheer foolishness on the parts of both the Chinese and American governments? What can their respective motives be? 

In America there has been a long term advertising campaign against any trade deficit, and many American voters have been persuaded to embrace a cause (make imports more expensive) that is likely not in their own interest. Have unions and export businesses so completely captured trade policy in the US? 

Is there a similar explanation for the Chinese policy?

Facing Fears

Brian Caplan discusses Exposure Therapy.

The exposure therapy approach to dealing with fears makes a lot of sense to me. As a matter of fact, I think people are wired to do this (to some extent) automatically. One example is dreaming repeatedly about a traumatic event. Another is obsession with a worry.

Political Spectrum

In a high school political science class I was taught that the political spectrum extends from communism on the far left to fascism on the far right, with Democrats and Republicans more or less in the center. Even back then this seemed stupid to me because in practice both communism and fascism are most strongly characterized by the subjugation of the individual and the community to the state. I asked my teacher where anarchy fit into this spectrum and bizarrely he suggested that it should be even further out to the right, past fascism.

There are many ways to chart political systems and philosophies relative to one another. Why do so many people consider to use and reference the Left vs. Right model? What do ‘leftness’ and ‘rightness’ indicate? For example, was my teacher correct to place anarchy on the far right? And if so, what essential characteristic is common between fascism and anarchy so that they end up on the same end of the spectrum?

Numerous other methodologies have been suggested for depicting the relative similarities and differences between various political systems and philosophies. The Nolan chart, for example, puts economic freedom on one axis, and personal freedom on another. Useful, perhaps, for explaining the Libertarian worldview, but rather limited in its ability to describe other political philosophies in their own language. For example, where precisely would Progressives place themselves on such a chart? I suggest that they would be apt to claim that the chart needed to be redrawn with different axes, perhaps one of which would be rationality in policy.

How would you draw a chart of all political systems/philosophies? How many axes would you need to describe the most important characteristics of each system? Below are some suggestions for possible axes:

Practical regulation ßà Moral regulation

Coercive ßà Free to opt out

Provides many public goods (roads, schools, etc.) ßà Provides few public goods

Focus on individual rights ßà Focus on community rights

More regulation of business ßà Less regulation of business

More regulation of personal activity (what I do in private) ßà Less regulation of personal activity

More regulation (in total) ßà More freedom

Governmental powers highly consolidated ßà Governmental powers very distributed (checks and balances)

Government captive to the people (officials easily removed from office by popular demand) ßà People captive to the government (individuals easily killed or imprisoned by officials)

Others?

Our Interesting Relationship With the Gulf States

The National is reporting that the strong US military presence in the Persian Gulf is acting as a disincentive to many gulf states to invest in defense, because these states believe that US interest in regional stability is all the defense they need.

The UAE is investing in America's THAAD missile defense system, and had previously suggested that a coalition of gulf states could fund a regional defense system. Apparently, some gulf states are hoping that US deployment of the sea-based Aegis system to defend carrier groups in the gulf will effectively protect their borders as well.

Components of "Smart"

I think that "smart" is one of those terms that people believe they understand, but is in fact so poorly defined that it risks uselessness as a descriptor. IQ is better defined because it refers to a score received on a test (or actually one of several tests, so some serious ambiguity remains). However, there are questions about what is actually being measured by IQ testing, so practical usefulness is limited here as well.

Measurement may be a problem, but definition need not be. There's no need to continue conflating multiple different characteristics and abilities under the term "smart", or even "intelligent".

Knowledge - This is accessible stored information. It grows with experience and study, but different people have differing abilities to absorb and retain information. There is the additional complication that possessing existing knowledge makes it easier to add and retain new knowledge, because retention is tied to the ability to index new information to information that has already been assimilated.

Processing Routines - These are sets of sequential operations that have been "burned in" to the brain by repetitive use. They can be simple or complex. Examples range from calculating multiplication tables to riding a bike. As with knowledge, different people have different abilities to create, maintain, and use these routines.

Concept Synthesis - This is the creation of a substantively novel concept through the blending of two or more existing concepts. This is probably what is most often referred to as "creative thinking". It is genuinely creative. It is the ability to recognize that many elements together don't just form a group, they form a pattern.

Relational Analysis - This is closely related to the ideas of Knowledge and Concept Synthesis. It is the ability to find or create links between distinct concepts. It reinforces Knowledge retention by increasing indexing between pieces of information. It supports Concept Synthesis by suggesting which concepts may have useful synergies.

I'm sure there's more than this. What are some other ways of looking at what it is to be smart?

Out of the Office...

I'm in training out of town this week and I'm find it practically impossible to keep up with posts, so hopefully starting Saturday I can get back in the groove. Talk to you then.